Thursday July 17, 2025
Start Location: Fergus, Ontario
Target Location: Mount Forest
Total Distance: 197 kmsBackground:
An interesting pattern was setting up today
as a cold front was poised to cross the region in the afternoon. The
atmosphere was forecasted to be highly unstable (LIs to -8 and Capes to
2000) and thus I began monitoring the situation around 10am. I was
surprised that no one was mention the threat for severe weather today and,
in fact, most radio stations and media outlets were calling for sun with
no chance of precipitation. I talked with one other chaser and he asked if
I thought anything was going to happen and where I was going if it did. We
discussed a few thoughts and I told him that I thought that convection
would fire up and track southeastward anywhere from Owen Sound to
Collingwood.
Although I thought that any storms that
fired would probably produce large hail and damaging winds, I played the
waiting game as I knew that the setup was very good. Around 4 pm, satellite
indicated that strong cells were
blowing up in the Georgian Bay region and the radar images caught them
about 10 mins later showing very strong to severe thunderstorms forming. I
decided to play the southwest end of the line and got in the truck and
headed northward to Arthur.
The Chase:
As I headed toward Mount Forest from
Fergus, I caught my first glimpse of the cells blowing up and I was very
excited by what I saw. The cumulonimbus cell was exhibiting an
overshooting top and excellent shear within it. At this time, a tornado
warning was issued for this cell. I knew that I was too far to the west
but I tried to catch it anyway. SO I headed east along Highway 89 for
about 15 mins before deciding that I was not going to catch it and thus, I
was out of luck. Being a little disturbed that I called the storm but was
out of location, I pulled over to the side of the road to decide what I
was going to do. I received a phone call from Des who said he was in the
area (the chaser I talked with earlier in the day) and he was seeing
rotation but no tornado was present. I glanced in my review mirror and
noticed that a few cells were building up behind me and I decided to turn
around and head back west toward Mount Forest. I bid Des Good luck and
began my second chase of the day.
These cells were really blowing up fast.
The first picture was the start and the second was 5 mins later.
The Chase Begins
As I traveled through Mount Forest,
these exploding thunderstorms became outflow dominate and collapsed very
quickly. As I passed through the rain core on a southwest track out of
Mount Forest, I gave a quick phone call to Dave R. for a radar update. He
told me that the cells I was chasing looked great and then died on radar.
He said that there was some new development associated with it on the west
side and though that maybe the cells I were chasing were undercut and this
new development was robbing them of moisture and thus they collapsed. I
asked him where he was and he told me he was at home. I told him that the
thunderstorm with the tornado warning was heading for him and he said they
were watching it come it. Showed some signs of rotation froma
distance. He told me he was going out to check things out and he would
call back.
So off I took off towards Orangeville to
catch the new development as it looked like it was going to track right
over town. As I approached Orangeville, I noticed that a wall cloud was
starting to form over the city. As I was in traffic, I was really having a
tough time watching the wall cloud form and not hitting anyone. Little did
many of them know what was going on. I was about to call E.C. about
it when the tornado warning was continued for the region.
I got another phone call from Des and he
told me he was about 20 kms to my northeast and on the other side of the
cell. He said that he could see the wall cloud but was not as close to it
as me (almost under it now). Deciding I should head a little further south
in case it did turn right I headed southward on Highway 10 for about 5 kms
before heading east again. The wall cloud had very good definition and
there was some definite rotation with in it. I thought that this storm was
going to produce a tornado soon.
Wall Cloud Formation
About now, I really started to get
concerned as this storm was heading directly for Toronto and, if a tornado
formed there, it could have some pretty bad consequences. I snapped off a
few more pictures and then the wall cloud became outflow dominate and died
eventually merging with the storm to the east (original tornadic storm).
Another pulse storm with no results. Ok, I was getting a little upset with
myself as my forecast was dead on, I was there but nothing happened.
Well I guessed that with my forecast
correct and a nice wall cloud, I actually had a successful chase day and
decided to head home. As I traveled west on hwy 24, I saw another pulse
storm pop up and decided to take some more photos in the field. I caught a
couple of nice lightning strikes and a beautiful backlit rainfoot.
I noticed some small cells build to the
northwest of Guelph. I was about 15 kms from Guelph at the time and
noticed some slight rotation in the updraft core. I listened to the
weather alert radio and made a phone call to another chaser. He said that
the cell was strong but not showing much.
Well, time to head home. BIG MISTAKE.
This was, in hindsight, the best storm of the day. The cell traveled over
Guelph and interacted with the lake breeze to forma an F2 tornado in the
south end of town. By the time I got home, My phone was ringing and it was
a friend in Guelph who told me that he saw the funnel in Guelph about 5
mins ago and why was I at home!!!. Well, I was definitely a little ticked
but I was worried as I knew people in the area. So I took off to the place
he observed the funnel and did some detective work to find the exact
track. After snapping a few pictures and getting kicked out of the area as
the police were blocking things off, I decided to head home. I tried to
tell the police I was doing a report for EC but they thought I was a
reporter with the amount of equipment I had on the truck etc.
So I called EC, told them this was definitely
a tornado and not wind damage and headed home. As I got home, I checked my
email and tons of reports were arriving in and some photos of it. I got
one disturbing message from someone I know that lived in the area. She
told me that the tornado went right over her house and she, due to conversations
with me, headed to the basement with here kids in time. At least, my
website and involvement in the weather helped.
Waking up the next morning,
I gave her a call and she invited me to come and assess the damage etc. So
I headed over and spent the whole day taking pictures and helping with the
cleanup around the area. It was really nice to see the numbers of volunteers
out helping. During the day, numerous people came over and talked to me
about it. They knew I was a chaser but wanted to know what they saw etc.
So after a long day and some seriously sore muscles after cutting about 60
trees up, I headed home. This one was very close to home but thankfully,
no one was serious hurt or killed.
An interesting aside is that
looking at the damage, the older houses stood up very well while the new
ones fell apart with walls collapsing etc.
Summary:
Well, this was a very
interesting chase day. I was happy that my forecasting the storms was
almost dead on including the tornado threat. I need to work on pinpointing
exactly where I think things are going to happen within 30 kms instead of
about 45 kms (better than last year which was averaging 80 kms). Also,
trust your eyes and not what the radar or people are saying. Sometimes
being in the field is better for gauging storm strength. An excellent
storm survey done by Dave Sills of Environment Canada is here.
He did a great job compiling this data.
Photos of
the Tornado:
These are video captures. I don't know who took them
Great Shot taken. Unknown Source.
Account From
Dave Scott including photos below.
Copyright Dave Scott.
One is the main wall cloud
descending as it starts to twist. This was taken about 4 minutes before touchdown. In the second
shot you can see the downburst,Whirlwind,F0 you call it as it touched the ground picking up dirt it died instantly no more then 2 seconds on
the ground. On the right side of the screen you can still see the main body of the tornado
descending ( The F2) Plus if I am not mistaken the f0 that hit the
Silvercreek area. These shots where both taken facing north on Westwood towards
Willow rd.
Radar
Animation during the tornado
If
you can stop the last image, you can see the trademark hook echo
associated with tornadoes.
Damage
Photos:
Cleanup BeginsAll Photos and information unless otherwise noted are
copyrighted 2000 by Dave Patrick. Any use other than authorized by them is against
the law. If you wish to contact me regarding use of these photos, please e-mail me.
Images unaltered digitally (except where stated)
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