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Today's Severe Outlook

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Additional Outlooks:

Ontario Convective Outlook (2 Xs Day)
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6-18 Hour Snow (updated twice daily)
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This section will focus on the threat of severe weather including thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes threats if they arise. I try to give an in-depth look at what I feel may happen but mother nature likes to play tricks and thus, conditions may change.
I update these once daily at varying times unless otherwise stated These are not official forecasts ( I am a hobbyist forecaster/storm chaser) Also, please use the other sources on the left as they provide added insight to conditions in the region.
Saturday August 28 12:00 PM EST UPDATED 1:00 PM
Discussion: Update: SPC in the U.S. is forecasting a slight chance of severe weather around the southwest corner of Ontario. This is due to very moist dewpoints and dry air aloft combining with a cold front moving through the region. See more in today's outlook

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have exited Ontario.  This will give a very nice weekend for most areas in the province. The only trouble spot may be in Southwest Ontario where a few showers and thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon. In Hurricane news, the closed low the exited east made no difference on Dennis. As Dennis is moving very slowly (10kph) the low exited the regions before Dennis was even close and thus did not redirect it. For those who don't check the home page, lightning data for Ontario has now been added!

Saturday: There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms in Southwestern Ontario. A few thunderstorms could occur in Southern Ontario south of an east-west line of Toronto.

New models indicate the threat for a few severe thunderstorms in the Southwest portion of Ontario. A cold front combining with high dewpoints, good capes and dry air aloft may produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. The thinking is that the lake effect breezes will combine with the front and other factors and spark a few thunderstorms in these regions.  The main threat area is the Southwestern regions but areas around the lakeshore of Erie may have the chance as well. These will diminish and move south after 8 pm.

Most of the province will see mostly sunny skies today as high pressure moves into the region.  

Sunday: There is no chance of severe thunderstorms in Ontario. 

The atmosphere will be dominated by high pressure during this period and thus no thunderstorm development is expected.  The next few days will be concentrated on Hurricane Dennis and it possible effects on the Atlantic coast and any residual effects that may affect Ontario (it has happened before about 3 decades ago).

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