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Convective Outlook (2 Xs Day)
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This section will focus on the threat of severe weather including thunderstorms,
hail and tornadoes threats if they arise. I try to give an in-depth look at what I feel
may happen but mother nature likes to play tricks and thus, conditions may change. I update these once daily at varying
times unless otherwise stated These are not official forecasts ( I
am a hobbyist forecaster/storm chaser) Also, please use the other sources on the left as
they provide added insight to conditions in the region.
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Saturday August
28 12:00 PM EST UPDATED 1:00 PM |
Discussion: |
Update:
SPC in the U.S. is forecasting a slight chance of severe weather
around the southwest corner of Ontario. This is due to very moist
dewpoints and dry air aloft combining with a cold front moving through
the region. See more in today's outlook
Most of the
showers and thunderstorms have exited Ontario. This will give a
very nice weekend for most areas in the province. The only trouble
spot may be in Southwest Ontario where a few showers and thunderstorms
may occur during the afternoon. In Hurricane news, the closed low the
exited east made no difference on Dennis. As Dennis is moving very
slowly (10kph) the low exited the regions before Dennis was even close
and thus did not redirect it. For those who
don't check the home page, lightning data for Ontario has now been
added!
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Saturday: |
There is a
slight chance of severe
thunderstorms in Southwestern Ontario. A few thunderstorms could occur in
Southern Ontario south of an east-west line of Toronto.
New models indicate the threat for a
few severe thunderstorms in the Southwest portion of Ontario. A cold
front combining with high dewpoints, good capes and dry air aloft may
produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. Damaging
winds and large hail are the main threats. The thinking is that the
lake effect breezes will combine with the front and other factors and
spark a few thunderstorms in these regions. The main threat area
is the Southwestern regions but areas around the lakeshore of Erie may
have the chance as well. These will diminish and move south after 8
pm. Most of the province will see mostly
sunny skies today as high pressure moves into the region.
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Sunday: |
There is no
chance of severe
thunderstorms in Ontario.
The atmosphere will be dominated by
high pressure during this period and thus no thunderstorm development
is expected. The next few days will be concentrated on Hurricane
Dennis and it possible effects on the Atlantic coast and any residual
effects that may affect Ontario (it has happened before about 3
decades ago).
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